A LEGEND MOVES ON
One of the most well respected Fire Officers in the Battalion is moving on in search of new challenges. Captain II John Nelson, Fire Station 102 "C" Platoon, is transferring to Fire Station 33.Captain Nelson brings his 48 years of experience to an assignment that has been one of his favorite through the years. In 1971 John helped open the "new" Fire Station 33 when he held the rank of Engineer. He was later assigned there as a Captain and gained a wealth of experience while working at "Fire City".
John has been assigned to Fire Station 102 for 19 years and has set a great example for the younger Officers while training many young Firefighters who have gone on to be some of the Department's finest. It is impossible to replace a member of Captain Nelson's caliber who takes such a wealth of experience with him to his new assignment.
John, the Battalion 14 "A", "B" and "C" Command Teams all wish you the best of luck at 33s and look forward to working with you at "The Big One". You will be missed.
RAIN SET FOR WEDNESDAY
From the National Weather Service Tuesday morning...
SHORT TERM
It seems we have model agreement, and it looks like we are going to get wet. An upper low forming near 35N/128W will not move much over the next day, bringing a moist southwesterly flow into Southern California. The low will then move slowly eastward Wednesday, keeping the area in a moist south flow pattern. Showery activity will persist into Friday morning. Upper-level dynamics tonight and Wednesday will give rise to a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The period of heaviest rain appears to be from a few hours before sunrise Wednesday to Wednesday evening. At this moment, the best guess for rainfall amounts is one quarter to three quarters of an inch for the coasts and valleys...a half to one-and-a-half inches in the mountains...but with three inches possible on the southern slopes. South flow will keep snow levels at or above 7000 feet and upper-low track really does not bring in any cold air advection.
While the models seem to be handling the situation well, it must be cautioned that cut-off lows are notoriously fickle.
Current guidance suggests that the burn areas will be susceptible to flash-flood-inducing amounts of rainfall.
South flow will keep temperatures a little warmer than usual with rain events.
LONG TERM
A ridge noses in from the west starting Friday afternoon. Offshore flow is forecast to begin Sunday. All in all, warmer and sunnier after Friday.
SHORT TERM
It seems we have model agreement, and it looks like we are going to get wet. An upper low forming near 35N/128W will not move much over the next day, bringing a moist southwesterly flow into Southern California. The low will then move slowly eastward Wednesday, keeping the area in a moist south flow pattern. Showery activity will persist into Friday morning. Upper-level dynamics tonight and Wednesday will give rise to a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The period of heaviest rain appears to be from a few hours before sunrise Wednesday to Wednesday evening. At this moment, the best guess for rainfall amounts is one quarter to three quarters of an inch for the coasts and valleys...a half to one-and-a-half inches in the mountains...but with three inches possible on the southern slopes. South flow will keep snow levels at or above 7000 feet and upper-low track really does not bring in any cold air advection.
While the models seem to be handling the situation well, it must be cautioned that cut-off lows are notoriously fickle.
Current guidance suggests that the burn areas will be susceptible to flash-flood-inducing amounts of rainfall.
South flow will keep temperatures a little warmer than usual with rain events.
LONG TERM
A ridge noses in from the west starting Friday afternoon. Offshore flow is forecast to begin Sunday. All in all, warmer and sunnier after Friday.
RAIN COMING...POSSIBLY A LOT - 11/06/05
Issued by the National Weather Service at 3pm Sunday...
An early season Pacific storm will develop over the Eastern Pacific tonight and Monday. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the eventual path…timing and intensity of the storm system and associated rainfall. It does appear fairly certain that rain in advance of a cold front will begin to impact areas north of Point Conception by Monday night. What is still unclear is whether the cold front will continue moving south and around Point Conception Tuesday…or stall near Point Conception while the upper-level energy driving the front becomes stalled to our west. In any event…it does appear likely that the entire areas will receive some rain between Monday night and Wednesday.
At this time...rainfall amounts do not appear to be too excessive. However...there is a modest tropical connection to the moisture plume heading toward Southern California...so rainfall amounts are still uncertain. For now...we will forecast between one quarter and one half inch of rain for the lower elevations and up to around one inch of rain for the mountains.
Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday...and associated instability in the atmosphere will help to produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. We will continue to monitor the high rainfall rate potential for any impacts in and near recently burned areas. Just a short period of heavy rain in those areas can result in rapid runoff and mud and debris flows.
The snow level will initially remain high...but slowly fall to around 6000 feet by late Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that up to 4 inches of snow could fall above 6000 feet. This should have little impact except on the highest of mountain roads.
After the storm system exits later in the week...a period of offshore flow will likely follow with warmer...drier and breezy to windy weather.
Listen to NOAA weather radio or your local media for later updates on this developing situation.
An early season Pacific storm will develop over the Eastern Pacific tonight and Monday. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the eventual path…timing and intensity of the storm system and associated rainfall. It does appear fairly certain that rain in advance of a cold front will begin to impact areas north of Point Conception by Monday night. What is still unclear is whether the cold front will continue moving south and around Point Conception Tuesday…or stall near Point Conception while the upper-level energy driving the front becomes stalled to our west. In any event…it does appear likely that the entire areas will receive some rain between Monday night and Wednesday.
At this time...rainfall amounts do not appear to be too excessive. However...there is a modest tropical connection to the moisture plume heading toward Southern California...so rainfall amounts are still uncertain. For now...we will forecast between one quarter and one half inch of rain for the lower elevations and up to around one inch of rain for the mountains.
Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday...and associated instability in the atmosphere will help to produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. We will continue to monitor the high rainfall rate potential for any impacts in and near recently burned areas. Just a short period of heavy rain in those areas can result in rapid runoff and mud and debris flows.
The snow level will initially remain high...but slowly fall to around 6000 feet by late Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that up to 4 inches of snow could fall above 6000 feet. This should have little impact except on the highest of mountain roads.
After the storm system exits later in the week...a period of offshore flow will likely follow with warmer...drier and breezy to windy weather.
Listen to NOAA weather radio or your local media for later updates on this developing situation.
