RAIN COMING...POSSIBLY A LOT - 11/06/05
Issued by the National Weather Service at 3pm Sunday...
An early season Pacific storm will develop over the Eastern Pacific tonight and Monday. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the eventual path…timing and intensity of the storm system and associated rainfall. It does appear fairly certain that rain in advance of a cold front will begin to impact areas north of Point Conception by Monday night. What is still unclear is whether the cold front will continue moving south and around Point Conception Tuesday…or stall near Point Conception while the upper-level energy driving the front becomes stalled to our west. In any event…it does appear likely that the entire areas will receive some rain between Monday night and Wednesday.
At this time...rainfall amounts do not appear to be too excessive. However...there is a modest tropical connection to the moisture plume heading toward Southern California...so rainfall amounts are still uncertain. For now...we will forecast between one quarter and one half inch of rain for the lower elevations and up to around one inch of rain for the mountains.
Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday...and associated instability in the atmosphere will help to produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. We will continue to monitor the high rainfall rate potential for any impacts in and near recently burned areas. Just a short period of heavy rain in those areas can result in rapid runoff and mud and debris flows.
The snow level will initially remain high...but slowly fall to around 6000 feet by late Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that up to 4 inches of snow could fall above 6000 feet. This should have little impact except on the highest of mountain roads.
After the storm system exits later in the week...a period of offshore flow will likely follow with warmer...drier and breezy to windy weather.
Listen to NOAA weather radio or your local media for later updates on this developing situation.
An early season Pacific storm will develop over the Eastern Pacific tonight and Monday. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the eventual path…timing and intensity of the storm system and associated rainfall. It does appear fairly certain that rain in advance of a cold front will begin to impact areas north of Point Conception by Monday night. What is still unclear is whether the cold front will continue moving south and around Point Conception Tuesday…or stall near Point Conception while the upper-level energy driving the front becomes stalled to our west. In any event…it does appear likely that the entire areas will receive some rain between Monday night and Wednesday.
At this time...rainfall amounts do not appear to be too excessive. However...there is a modest tropical connection to the moisture plume heading toward Southern California...so rainfall amounts are still uncertain. For now...we will forecast between one quarter and one half inch of rain for the lower elevations and up to around one inch of rain for the mountains.
Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday...and associated instability in the atmosphere will help to produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. We will continue to monitor the high rainfall rate potential for any impacts in and near recently burned areas. Just a short period of heavy rain in those areas can result in rapid runoff and mud and debris flows.
The snow level will initially remain high...but slowly fall to around 6000 feet by late Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that up to 4 inches of snow could fall above 6000 feet. This should have little impact except on the highest of mountain roads.
After the storm system exits later in the week...a period of offshore flow will likely follow with warmer...drier and breezy to windy weather.
Listen to NOAA weather radio or your local media for later updates on this developing situation.
