RAIN SET FOR WEDNESDAY
From the National Weather Service Tuesday morning...
SHORT TERM
It seems we have model agreement, and it looks like we are going to get wet. An upper low forming near 35N/128W will not move much over the next day, bringing a moist southwesterly flow into Southern California. The low will then move slowly eastward Wednesday, keeping the area in a moist south flow pattern. Showery activity will persist into Friday morning. Upper-level dynamics tonight and Wednesday will give rise to a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The period of heaviest rain appears to be from a few hours before sunrise Wednesday to Wednesday evening. At this moment, the best guess for rainfall amounts is one quarter to three quarters of an inch for the coasts and valleys...a half to one-and-a-half inches in the mountains...but with three inches possible on the southern slopes. South flow will keep snow levels at or above 7000 feet and upper-low track really does not bring in any cold air advection.
While the models seem to be handling the situation well, it must be cautioned that cut-off lows are notoriously fickle.
Current guidance suggests that the burn areas will be susceptible to flash-flood-inducing amounts of rainfall.
South flow will keep temperatures a little warmer than usual with rain events.
LONG TERM
A ridge noses in from the west starting Friday afternoon. Offshore flow is forecast to begin Sunday. All in all, warmer and sunnier after Friday.
SHORT TERM
It seems we have model agreement, and it looks like we are going to get wet. An upper low forming near 35N/128W will not move much over the next day, bringing a moist southwesterly flow into Southern California. The low will then move slowly eastward Wednesday, keeping the area in a moist south flow pattern. Showery activity will persist into Friday morning. Upper-level dynamics tonight and Wednesday will give rise to a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The period of heaviest rain appears to be from a few hours before sunrise Wednesday to Wednesday evening. At this moment, the best guess for rainfall amounts is one quarter to three quarters of an inch for the coasts and valleys...a half to one-and-a-half inches in the mountains...but with three inches possible on the southern slopes. South flow will keep snow levels at or above 7000 feet and upper-low track really does not bring in any cold air advection.
While the models seem to be handling the situation well, it must be cautioned that cut-off lows are notoriously fickle.
Current guidance suggests that the burn areas will be susceptible to flash-flood-inducing amounts of rainfall.
South flow will keep temperatures a little warmer than usual with rain events.
LONG TERM
A ridge noses in from the west starting Friday afternoon. Offshore flow is forecast to begin Sunday. All in all, warmer and sunnier after Friday.
